As we head into September, the Stillwater and St. Croix Valley real estate market is showing signs of a shift and smart sellers and buyers are already adjusting their strategies. Here’s your real-world, data-backed local market update, filled with insights that you won’t find on Zillow or Redfin.
🔻 Buyer Activity Slows in the Valley — Only 6 Pending Sales This Week
Over the past week, only 6 homes went pending in the Stillwater area — a noticeable decline from recent weeks. This is a trend worth watching, especially for homeowners considering listing their property this fall. On the other hand, 9 new listings hit the market, slightly outpacing pending sales.
This imbalance could signal a shift toward a more buyer-friendly market — or at least a more balanced one.
📉 Mortgage Rate Shake-Up: Rates Dip to 6.25%
The recent not-so-strong jobs report sparked one of the most significant mortgage rate adjustments we've seen in months. Interest rates are now hovering around 6.25%, which is notable relief for buyers who’ve been sidelined due to affordability concerns.
This drop could be the catalyst we need to reignite activity this fall. Buyers — this may be your moment. Sellers — if you've been waiting for the right time, this interest rate shift may bring more eyes to your home.
Inside Twin Cities Real Estate: Insider Contract Data from 83 Recent Deals (Aug 22 – Sept 5)
Want to know what's really happening behind the scenes in Twin Cities real estate deals? I follow a trusted transaction coordination company, Home Free TC, which processes dozens of contracts weekly for agents across the 7-county metro.
Here’s the real-world data from 83 accepted offers they coordinated in just the last two weeks:
🔍 Inspections waived: 24% ↓
💵 Cash purchases: 19% ↑ | Conventional loans: 71% ↑ | FHA: 6% ↓ | VA: 4%
🏠 Pre-MLS sales: 6% ↑
📈 Average purchase-to-list price: 100.2% ↓
💯 Median purchase-to-list price: 100%
💸 Sellers helping with closing costs: 25% ↓
🛡️ Home warranties included: 10% ↓
🏡 Contingent on buyer’s home sale: 10% ↓
⬆️ Escalation clauses: 6% ↑
📏 Appraisal gap coverage: 12% of financed deals
🚫 Contract cancellations: 4% ↓
👉 What this means for you:
Buyers are getting more cautious. Inspections are coming back into the picture. Sellers are offering fewer concessions. Escalation clauses and appraisal gap clauses are being used strategically — but not wildly.
📊 What Does This Mean for Fall 2025?
Whether you're a homeowner thinking about selling or a buyer waiting for the right time, the market is shifting beneath your feet. Here’s what I’d advise:
🏠 Sellers:
Price it right — buyers are still out there, but they’re getting selective.
Consider the timing of interest rates — right now, your home might be more affordable to more people.
Make your listing shine — staging, photography, and emotional storytelling are more important than ever.
🔑 Buyers:
This rate dip gives you more buying power — but use it wisely.
Be ready to move fast on well-priced properties.
Consider using strategies like appraisal gap coverage or flexible closing timelines to win in competitive situations.
🧭 Need Help Navigating This Market?
With over 30 years of real estate experience and deep ties to the Stillwater and St. Croix Valley community, I bring more than data — I bring strategic advice, local expertise, and a personal touch.
If you're thinking about buying, selling, or just have questions about what these changes mean for your real estate goals — let’s talk. No pressure, just a conversation.
Let’s talk.
About Richard
Richard McDonough is a top-producing real estate broker in Stillwater & Wasington County Minnesota reaching into Western Wisconsin, specializing in luxury homes, waterfront properties, and distinctive estates throughout the St. Croix Valley With more than 33 years of experience, Richard has built a reputation for integrity, innovation, and results, making him one of the most trusted and recognized Realtors in the region.
As a fourth-generation Stillwater resident, Richard combines deep local roots with global reach through his affiliation with Lakes Sotheby’s International Realty. His expertise spans the area’s most sought-after communities — from Stillwater and Lake Elmo to Woodbury, Afton, Marine on St. Croix, Mahtomedi, Grant, and Dellwood — along with select Wisconsin river towns such as Hudson and Prescott.
Richard is known for delivering a “Luxury Plus” marketing approach that goes beyond traditional real estate services. Every listing receives a personalized strategy with professional staging, high-end photography, drone video tours, and targeted digital campaigns across Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. His ability to tell each home’s unique story consistently attracts qualified buyers and maximizes value for sellers.
In addition to his track record of selling some of the St. Croix Valley’s most prestigious properties, Richard is deeply engaged in his community. He serves on local nonprofit boards, volunteers for events like Home Town for the Holidays, and is dedicated to supporting the Stillwater area’s vibrancy.
Clients describe Richard as experienced, resourceful, and innovative — a true advocate who handles every detail of the buying and selling process with professionalism and care. Whether helping first-time buyers, seasoned investors, or high-net-worth individuals, Richard’s mission is to make every real estate experience seamless, rewarding, and successful.
