Some weeks in real estate feel routine. Others… feel like the market whispers a hint of change.
This week in Stillwater, that whisper grew a little louder.
I track every movement in our local market — the new listings, the contracts, the subtle shifts that tell the real story behind the numbers. And this week, two things stood out immediately.
A Nearly Silent Week for New Listings
Only one new listing came on the market in Stillwater.
Just one.
That’s an unusually quiet week — even for November — and it’s a sign that many homeowners are choosing to sit tight as winter settles in.
On the flip side, we still saw seven homes go under contract, which tells me buyer demand remains steady. Motivated buyers are still out there… they’re just waiting for the right opportunity.
The Market Action Index Slipped
What really caught my attention was the drop in the Market Action Index, sliding from the mid-40s down to 43.
We’re still in a seller’s market, but this decline suggests the market is cooling — not crashing — just softening.
This could simply be our traditional winter cycle where activity slows and motivation changes.
But here’s where things get interesting…
This Is When the Hidden Deals Show Up
Every year around this time, I see something predictable happen:
•Homes that haven’t reduced their price
•Sellers who have been stubborn
•Listings that sit 45+ days with no movement
Those are the homes where real value lives.
Most buyers avoid them because they think, “If it hasn’t sold, something must be wrong.”
But often the only thing wrong… is the price.
And that creates opportunity.
Right now, I’m telling my buyers:
“Go look at the listings that have been sitting 45 days or more. If you like one, we write a low, clean offer.”
Sellers may not love the offer — but they will negotiate.
They want their home sold.
And buyers suddenly have a bit more leverage.
For some families, these negotiations mean thousands saved.
This winter is shaping up to offer some of the best value-buys we’ll see for months.
So if you’ve been discouraged or waiting for your moment… don’t back away now. The next eight weeks could produce some incredible opportunities.
Metro-Wide Snapshot: November 1–21 Data
From 124 accepted offers across the Twin Cities (via Home Free TC):
•Inspections waived: 19% (down)
•Pre-MLS sales: 4% (up)
•Financing: 15% Cash ↑ • 70% Conventional ↓ • 9% FHA ↑ • 5% VA ↑
•Average purchase-to-list: 99.7%
•Median purchase-to-list: 100%
•Seller-paid closing costs: 33% (up)
•Home warranties: 10% (up)
•Buyer-home sale contingencies: 10% (down)
•Escalation clauses: 3% (up)
•Appraisal gap coverage: 4% (up)
•Cancellations: 10% (up)
Winter brings clarity. The buyers who remain are serious. The sellers who negotiate are motivated. And the best Realtor is the one who knows where the quiet opportunities are hiding.
If you want help finding one of those value deals, I’d love to guide you.
I’ll find you your next dream home — even in the coldest season of the year.
Because the Stillwater market never stops moving… it just gets quieter.
About Richard
Richard McDonough is a top-producing real estate broker in Stillwater & Wasington County Minnesota reaching into Western Wisconsin, specializing in luxury homes, waterfront properties, and distinctive estates throughout the St. Croix Valley With more than 33 years of experience, Richard has built a reputation for integrity, innovation, and results, making him one of the most trusted and recognized Realtors in the region.
As a fourth-generation Stillwater resident, Richard combines deep local roots with global reach through his affiliation with Lakes Sotheby’s International Realty. His expertise spans the area’s most sought-after communities — from Stillwater and Lake Elmo to Woodbury, Afton, Marine on St. Croix, Mahtomedi, Grant, and Dellwood — along with select Wisconsin river towns such as Hudson and Prescott.
Richard is known for delivering a “Luxury Plus” marketing approach that goes beyond traditional real estate services. Every listing receives a personalized strategy with professional staging, high-end photography, drone video tours, and targeted digital campaigns across Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. His ability to tell each home’s unique story consistently attracts qualified buyers and maximizes value for sellers.
In addition to his track record of selling some of the St. Croix Valley’s most prestigious properties, Richard is deeply engaged in his community. He serves on local nonprofit boards, volunteers for events like Home Town for the Holidays, and is dedicated to supporting the Stillwater area’s vibrancy.
Clients describe Richard as experienced, resourceful, and innovative — a true advocate who handles every detail of the buying and selling process with professionalism and care. Whether helping first-time buyers, seasoned investors, or high-net-worth individuals, Richard’s mission is to make every real estate experience seamless, rewarding, and successful.
