Stillwater Market Update — July 19, 2026: Nine Pendings and a Luxury Market Hitting Its Stride

Mid-July is often when a market shows you its true character. The spring rush is behind us, the fall push hasn't started, and what's left is genuine demand — buyers who are serious, and sellers who are positioned well. By that measure, Stillwater had a strong week: nine properties went pending , while seven new listings and four coming-soon properties entered the pipeline.

Nine accepted offers in seven days, in a zip code with 63 active listings, tells you buyers here aren't browsing — they're acting when the right property appears.

This week in numbers

What the data is telling us

The Market Action Index sits at 48 this week, easing from 51 a month ago. I want to be straightforward about what that means, because I think candor is worth more than cheerleading: the market has cooled slightly from its peak intensity. But an MAI of 48 remains solidly in seller's market territory — demand is still outpacing supply, and well-prepared, well-priced homes are moving.

Inventory has climbed to 63 homes, which gives buyers more to consider and raises the bar for presentation and pricing strategy. It does not change who holds the advantage. And note where price per square foot is heading: $263 and trending up, even as headline prices hold steady — a sign that the value buyers place on homes here continues to firm underneath the surface.

Market segments at a glance

Not every price tier behaves the same way. Here's where each segment stands right now:

Notice something? The $690K tier is the fastest-moving segment in the Valley right now — just 21 days on market, absorbing five homes against three new listings. That's real velocity. And at the top, nine new luxury listings entered against two absorbed — sellers at the high end are reading the same demand signals and stepping in, which makes positioning and presentation matter more than ever at that tier.

Among this week's pendings: the Penthouse at 501 Main Street

One of this week's nine pending sales is my own listing, the Penthouse at 501 Main Street. I've walked past that corner of downtown my entire life — my family has been in Stillwater for four generations — and I can tell you there are only a handful of vantage points anywhere in the Valley that take in the river, the Lift Bridge, and the bluffs the way that rooftop does. Properties like this don't trade often, and when they're presented properly, the market responds. This one did exactly that.

The wider lens: Twin Cities luxury is having a strong year

Zoom out from the 55082 zip code and the picture gets even more interesting. Across the Twin Cities, closed sales of homes priced at $1 million and above are up 31% year-to-date compared to the same period last year.

That is not a marginal move. A gain of that size at the top of the market tells us the buyer pool for exceptional properties has deepened — and that those buyers are closing, not just looking. The Stillwater segment data above agrees: activity at the upper tiers is steady, and the luxury pipeline is refilling because sellers see the same strength.

A question worth asking yourself

If you own a distinctive property in Stillwater or anywhere in the St. Croix Valley, here's the question I'd put to you — not as a pitch, but as the same question I'd ask a neighbor over coffee: when was the last time you had a real valuation done on your home?

Not an online estimate. A genuine analysis that accounts for your property's position in the current market — its segment, its comparables, the depth of buyer demand at its price point right now. For most homeowners I talk with, the honest answer is "years ago," and in a market where luxury closings have climbed 31% in twelve months, that means most owners are working from an outdated number.

Knowing your home's current value doesn't obligate you to sell. It simply means that when you make decisions — about selling, staying, renovating, or planning your estate — you're making them with accurate information. That's true whether the answer leads you to list this fall or hold for another decade.