A Note From Richard
I just returned from a remarkable journey through Peru — standing in the Andes Mountains, watching the sun set over Lima's Pacific cliffs from a ridge above the city, I was reminded of something I tell every client: perspective changes everything. From altitude, you see the whole picture with startling clarity. That's precisely the lens I bring to every market report I write for you.
The Stillwater real estate market right now rewards exactly that kind of clarity. The numbers tell a nuanced story — one that Zillow's automated algorithm simply cannot translate into meaningful guidance — and my job is to make sure you understand what the data means for your specific situation.
"In the past two weeks, 7 homes went under contract with an average market time of just 2 days. That is not a slow market. That is a market rewarding decisive buyers and well-positioned sellers."
The Headline: A Strong Seller's Market — And It's Heating Up
The Stillwater real estate market has shifted aggressively into a strong seller’s market, with demand accelerating and inventory tightening.
The Market Action Index (MAI) is the single most predictive indicator I track. It measures the velocity of sales against available inventory in real time. Any score above 30 indicates a seller's market. At 53 — and climbing sharply from 48 just one month ago — Stillwater is firmly and decisively in seller's territory, and the momentum is building in the right direction.
This is not a lagging statistic or a seasonal artifact. This is the market telling you, right now, that demand is outpacing supply. The implications for both buyers and sellers in Stillwater are real, measurable, and immediate.
Two Weeks of Market Velocity: The Numbers Behind the Story
Read those last two numbers together carefully. While the overall median days on market sits at 21 days — and the average is 64, skewed meaningfully by the patient luxury segment — the homes that are priced correctly and presented professionally are evaporating in 48 hours. This is the dual-speed nature of today's Stillwater market, and understanding which speed your home or target property occupies is worth tens of thousands of dollars at the negotiating table.
Are Prices Going Up? Here Is the Honest Answer.
The median list price in Stillwater 55082 is $850,000 — and prices are currently in a plateau phase, sitting below the market's historical peak. In the near term, prices have not yet resumed an upward trajectory. The price-per-square-foot at $258 has trended slightly downward, meaning buyers are currently getting more home per dollar as larger inventory comes to market.
However — and this is the critical read — the MAI rising from 48 to 53 in a single month is the early signal that price recovery may be approaching. Inventory remains sufficiently constrained to sustain strong seller's market conditions. The structural foundation for appreciation is intact; the market is coiling.
My professional assessment: the homes selling in 2 days right now are establishing the comparable sales that will support the next price tier up. If you are considering selling in the next 6 to 12 months, the window to maximize your position is open — and historically, these windows do not stay open indefinitely.
Market Segments: Not All Stillwater Homes Are Moving at the Same Speed
The Stillwater 55082 market is best understood in four distinct segments, each representing approximately 25% of inventory by price:
| Price Tier | Median Price | Sq. Ft. | Beds / Baths | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxury — Top Tier | $2,048,580 | 5,851 | 5 bd / 4.5 ba | 28 days |
| Upper Mid-Market | $1,150,000 | 3,958 | 4 bd / 3.5 ba | 84 days |
| Mid-Market | $635,000 | 2,754 | 4 bd / 3.5 ba | 7 days |
| Entry Level | $381,950 | 1,618 | 3 bd / 2 ba | < 1 day |
Why Your Home's Value Matters — Even If You Are Not Selling
Zillow's algorithm does not walk your floors. It does not account for your kitchen renovation, your lot position, your waterfront orientation, your view corridor, or the way afternoon light fills your great room. It pulls data points and applies a formula. That formula has been wrong by 5–20% in Stillwater — sometimes dramatically so — in both directions.
A professional Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from a Lakes Sotheby's International Realty broker is not a sales pitch. It is a financial service you are entitled to as a homeowner, delivered with no obligation and no pressure. Knowing your home's current market value informs refinancing decisions, estate planning, property tax appeals, insurance coverage levels, and your overall financial picture.
You should know what your most valuable asset is worth in today's market — not from an algorithm, and not from a neighbor's opinion. From a professional with 25+ years of experience in this market, access to real-time data, and a genuine commitment to your financial interests.
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