Richard McDonough | Lakes Sotheby's International Realty
The Valley Ledger
Stillwater & St. Croix Valley Market Intelligence · Week of August 23, 2026
15 New Listings in One Week: The Stillwater Market Is Telling Us Something Before Labor Day
The Market Action Index slipped again — down to 44. Fifteen new listings and three coming-soon properties hit 55082 in seven days, the heaviest single week of new supply I've seen in a long while. And it happened before the fall market officially starts. Here's what I think that means, and what I'd do about it if this were my house.
The Short Answer
As of August 23, 2026, the Stillwater, MN 55082 single-family market carries a Market Action Index of 44— a Slight Seller's Advantage, down from 47 a month ago. Median list price is at an all-time high of $1,082,500, but the median price of newlistings is $679,000, and 30% of active listingshave already reduced price while 0% have raisedit. Active inventory stands at 64 homes. Translation: sellers still have the edge, but the cushion is getting thinner every week.
Fifteen. In One Week.
I've been selling homes in this valley for thirty-three years, and I've been paying attention to Stillwater dirt a lot longer than that — four generations of my family have called this town home. So when I tell you that fifteen new listings crossing the wire in a single week caught my attention, understand that I'm not saying it for effect.
Put the number in context. There are64 active single-family listingsin 55082 right now. Fifteen new ones in seven days means roughlyone out of every four homes currently for sale in Stillwater arrived within the last week.Add the three new coming-soon listings staging behind them and the pipeline gets heavier still.
What makes it more interesting is the timing. The Minnesota fall real estate market doesn't traditionally open until the week after Labor Day — this year, September 7. Buyers finish the back-to-school scramble, the calendar resets, and the phones start ringing again. Sellers who plan around that rhythm typically list in the second week of September.
These fifteen didn't wait.
"When a meaningful group of sellers moves ahead of the calendar, they usually know something — or they've been told something. Either way, the competition you'd have faced in September just moved into August."
What the Market Action Index Is Actually Saying
The Market Action Index compares the rate of sales against available inventory. It's the cleanest single answer to "how's the market?" that I know of. Above 30 is seller territory; below 30 tilts toward buyers.
We're at 44. A month ago we were at 47. A few weeks before that, higher still. That's not a cliff — it's a slope, and it has been consistently downward for several weeks now.
Here's the part worth understanding:a falling index doesn't mean prices are falling.It means demand is thinning relative to supply. Because we're still comfortably in the seller's zone, prices have not begun to drop — in fact the median list price hit another all-time high this week. Price is a lagging indicator. The index leads it. If the index keeps sliding toward the buyer's zone and stays there, that's when list prices follow.
So we're in the window between the signal and the consequence. That window is where good decisions get made.
The Number Nobody Is Talking About
Median list price for 55082:$1,082,500. All-time high.
Median price of the new listings coming to market:$679,000.
That is a gap of roughly $400,000, and it tells you exactly where this wave of supply is landing. It is not the top of the market. New inventory is arriving in the middle and lower tiers — the $500K to $800K range where Stillwater has the deepest, most competitive buyer pool. Meanwhile the standing inventory median stays elevated because the upper-bracket homes that haven't sold are still sitting there, holding the median up.
Read This Twice
An all-time-high median list price in a market with a falling action index frequently means themixis changing, not that every home is worth more than it was last month. Ask what the median is measuring before you let it set your expectations.
Stillwater by the Numbers — Week of August 23, 2026
| Metric | This Week | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Median List Price | $1,082,500 | Another all-time high; upper-bracket inventory is holding the median up |
| Median Price of New Listings | $679,000 | New supply is entering well below the standing median |
| Price Per Square Foot | $266 | Essentially flat — larger, newer homes are pricing up, so value per foot holds |
| Market Action Index | 44 | Slight Seller's Advantage; down from 47 last month |
| Active Inventory | 64 | Climbing |
| Average Days on Market | 68 | Patience is being required |
| Median Days on Market | 49 | Half of active listings arrived in the last 49 days |
| Price Decreased | 30% | Nearly a third of active sellers have already cut |
| Price Increased | 0% | Nobody is raising. Nobody. |
| Relisted | 16% | One in six has been to market before |
| Median Rent | $2,375 | Steady; supports the move-up and investor math |
Source: Altos Research, Inc., report dated August 23, 2026. New-listing and coming-soon counts are from my own weekly review of NorthstarMLS activity in 55082.
The Four Quartiles: Where Stillwater Is Moving and Where It Isn't
Averages lie. Quartiles tell the truth. Altos splits the market into four price bands, each roughly 25% of inventory, and the divergence right now is the most useful thing on the page.
| Tier | Median Price | Sq. Ft. | Lot | Bed / Bath | Age | New | Absorbed | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top | $2,249,100 | 6,396 | 5–10 ac | 5 / 4.6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 42 |
| Upper | $1,329,976 | 4,484 | 2.5–5 ac | 4 / 3.3 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 84 |
| Lower | $674,500 | 3,110 | 0.5–1 ac | 4 / 3 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| Bottom | $374,500 | 1,721 | 0.25–0.5 ac | 3 / 2 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 28 |
Bottom tier ($374,500 median) — still the fastest market in town
Five homes absorbed against one new listing. Twenty-eight days on market. If you own a well-kept 1,700-square-foot home on a quarter-acre in Stillwater, you are in the tightest, most competitive segment in the ZIP code. This is where first-time buyers, downsizers, and Twin Cities commuters all collide.
Lower tier ($674,500 median) — where the new supply landed
Four new listings, two absorbed. Forty-nine days on market. This is the segment absorbing the bulk of the week's arrivals, and it's the tier where presentation and pricing discipline separate the homes that go in three weeks from the ones that go in three months.
Upper tier ($1,329,976 median) — 84 days and counting
Zero new listings, two absorbed, but eighty-four days on market. The homes in this band that are selling are selling; the ones that aren't have been sitting long enough to know it. Twenty-year-old homes at $1.3 million are competing directly against six-year-old homes in the tier above.
Top tier ($2,249,100 median) — two in, zero out
This is the number that deserves attention. The luxury segment added two listings this week and absorbed none. Days on market reads 42, which sounds healthy, but that's partly because the newest arrivals reset the clock. Six-year-old, 6,400-square-foot homes on five-to-ten acres are extraordinary properties — and extraordinary properties trade on a longer timeline, with fewer qualified buyers, in every market cycle. If you're at this level, your strategy cannot be "list it and see."
Key Takeaways — Stillwater 55082, August 23, 2026
- Market Action Index fell to 44 from 47 a month ago — the fourth consecutive stretch of cooling, still inside the seller's zone.
- 15 new listings + 3 coming soonin one week against 64 active — roughly a quarter of standing inventory arrived in seven days.
- Median list price hit an all-time high of $1,082,500 , but new listings are entering at a $679,000 median. The mix is shifting downward even as the headline number climbs.
- 30% of active listings have cut price. 0% have raised. That ratio is the clearest tell in the report.
- Velocity lives at the bottom. Entry tier: 28 days and 5 absorbed. Top tier: 2 new, 0 absorbed.
- The fall market opens after Labor Day, September 7.Fifteen sellers just decided not to wait for it.
So What Would I Actually Do?
I want to be careful here, because I don't have a crystal ball and I won't pretend to. What I have is thirty-three years of pattern recognition and a data set that is flashing the same signal four weeks running.
If you were planning to list in spring 2027
Consider moving it up. Not because I want a listing — because the math has gotten interesting. Inventory is building now, before the traditional fall wave. If this supply keeps arriving through September and October and doesn't clear, the spring 2027 market opens with a backlog. You would rather be ahead of a backlog than inside one.
If spring is genuinely the right call for your family
Then do two things in the next three weeks, and I mean this sincerely whether you ever work with me or not:
One: get a current valuation. Not a Zestimate. Not last year's number. An actual, defensible opinion of value grounded in what has closed within a mile of your front door this season. If we are at a turning point, the difference between a spring 2027 number and a spring 2026 assumption could be significant in either direction. You want to make your plan on real information.
Two: photograph your home right now, while the grass is green. This is one of the most under-appreciated moves in all of residential real estate. Right now your lawn is at peak color, your perennials are in, your trees are full, and the St. Croix Valley looks the way it looks on a postcard. In March, your yard is going to be gray mud and salt-crust. If you list in late winter or early spring with brown-grass exterior photos, you are launching your most important marketing asset at its weakest. If you list in March with lush August exteriors on file, you launch strong.
That's a few hundred dollars and one afternoon with a photographer, and it buys you a materially better spring launch. I've watched it move real money.
A Note on Disclosure
If seasonal exterior photography is used in a later listing, the photo caption should note the season it was captured. Accurate representation isn't just an ethics requirement under NAR Article 12 — it also prevents the buyer disappointment that kills momentum at the showing.
If you're buying in Stillwater right now
You have more to choose from than you've had in months, and nearly a third of active sellers have already demonstrated they'll move on price. That is genuine leverage. Use it in the lower and upper tiers especially — the $600K–$1.4M bands are where the negotiating room actually exists. In the bottom tier at 28 days and five absorbed, you're still going to have to be decisive.
And Now — The Great Minnesota Get-Together
Enough about absorption rates. This week the State Fair opens, and I'd be a poor Minnesotan if I let a market update go out without saying so.
The Minnesota State Fair runsThursday, August 27 through Labor Day, Monday, September 7 — twelve days that function as this state's actual holiday season. Food on a stick. The Midway lit up at dusk. Grandstand shows. The art building. And crop art, which remains, in my entirely biased opinion, the single most Minnesota thing that has ever existed.
But the part I never miss is the barns.
If you've never walked through the livestock barns in the early morning, go this year. You'll find 4-H kids from Washington County and every other county in the state who have been up since before five, hosing down a steer, re-bedding straw, running a comb through a heifer's topline one more time. A lot of them sleep out there on cots next to their animals for the duration. Some of these families have been showing at this fair for four and five generations — which, being a fourth-generation Stillwater guy myself, is a thing I understand in my bones.
Those kids are learning what a year of work looks like when it comes down to eight minutes in a show ring. It's the best thing at the Fair and it isn't close.
Go see the largest boar. Ride the Sky Glider. Eat something indefensible.
Practical tip:discounted advance tickets are typically available at Cub Foods locations and other retail outlets in the run-up to opening day, and that pricing generally ends once the gates open. Worth grabbing them before Thursday if you're planning a trip. (Check the Fair's official site for current pricing and hours before you go.)
And if you're driving in from the Valley — leave earlier than you think you need to, park where the nice person in the reflective vest tells you to, and just accept that you're going to walk. It's part of it.
The Bottom Line From Where I Sit
The Stillwater market is not falling apart. Let me say that clearly, because market updates have a way of getting quoted out of context. We are at a Market Action Index of 44 in the seller's zone with a median list price at an all-time high. That is a good market.
What it is doing is changing. Inventory is climbing. The index has cooled four weeks running. Nearly a third of sellers have already cut price and not one has raised. And fifteen sellers just decided that waiting for the post-Labor Day window wasn't worth it.
I don't know where this goes. Nobody does. But I know the difference between a market that's still giving you options and one that has already taken them away, and right now you still have options. The homeowners who use the next six weeks to get informed — a real valuation, real photos, a real conversation about timing — are going to be the ones making choices next spring instead of reacting to them.
That's the whole point of this letter every week. Not to sell you anything. To make sure that when you do decide something, you decide it with the actual numbers in front of you.
Equity & Strategy Review
A private, no-obligation assessment of what your St. Croix Valley home is worth today and what the next twelve months could reasonably look like for it. No pressure, no listing presentation — just your numbers, honestly. Typically 45 minutes at your kitchen table.
Request Your ReviewCall 612.819.3518The Quiet Listing Network
Not everyone wants a sign in the yard and thirty strangers through the kitchen on a Sunday. For upper-bracket owners in Stillwater, Marine on St. Croix, Afton, Lake Elmo, and Bayport, I maintain a discreet network of qualified buyers and cooperating advisors for off-market introductions.
Inquire PrivatelyStillwater Market Questions I'm Getting This Week
Is the Stillwater MN housing market a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
Still a seller's market — but a narrowing one. The Market Action Index reads 44, which Altos classifies as a Slight Seller's Advantage, down from 47 a month ago. Sellers hold the edge; the cushion is thinner than it was.
What is the median home price in Stillwater, MN 55082?
$1,082,500 median list price as of August 23, 2026 — an all-time high for the ZIP code — at $266 per square foot. Important caveat: new listings are entering at a $679,000 median, so the headline figure reflects elevated upper-bracket inventory sitting in the pool.
Should I sell my Stillwater home now or wait until spring?
It depends on your household, but the current signals lean toward sooner: a cooling index, a heavy week of new supply arriving ahead of the fall season, and 30% of active listings already reduced. If spring is still the right call, get a current valuation and capture green-grass exterior photography now so your spring launch isn't handicapped by March imagery.
How many homes are for sale in Stillwater right now?
64 active single-family listings in 55082, and climbing. Fifteen new listings plus three coming-soon properties arrived in the past week alone.
How long do homes take to sell in Stillwater, Minnesota?
Average 68 days, median 49 days across all price points — but that spread is wide. The entry tier is averaging 28 days; the $1.33 million upper quartile is averaging 84.
When does the fall real estate market start in Minnesota?
Traditionally the week after Labor Day, which is September 7 in 2026. Buyers who paused for summer travel and back-to-school re-engage then. Listings that go active before that point face less competition from the September wave.
Which St. Croix Valley communities do you cover?
Stillwater, Bayport, Oak Park Heights, Marine on St. Croix, Lake Elmo, and Afton, plus the surrounding Washington County market — and I'm licensed in Wisconsin as well for the St. Croix County side of the river.
