Every week I sit down with the numbers for Stillwater, Bayport, Oak Park Heights, Marine on St. Croix, Lake Elmo and Afton. Not because the data makes decisions for anyone, but because it tells me which questions my clients should be asking. This week, there are more of those questions than usual.
Here’s what crossed my desk in the past seven days, from my own listing activity and the market as a whole:
Four homes going under contract in the first week of November tells you buyers haven’t gone into hibernation. Four homes coming on in their place tells you sellers haven’t either. That balance is the story of the Stillwater real estate market right now, and it’s why the details matter so much.
Stillwater, MN 55082 by the numbers
Single-family homes, week of November 2, 2026:
- Median list price
- $714,900
- Median price of new listings
- $669,500
- Median price per square foot
- $246
- Homes for sale
- 77
- Median / average days on market
- 42 / 68
- Listings with a price reduction
- 43%
- Listings with a price increase
- 0%
- Relisted
- 16%
Three of these numbers deserve a closer look.
New listings are arriving about 6% below the overall median. The median new listing is priced at $669,500 against a $714,900 median for everything on the market. Sellers launching today are pricing to the market they see, not the one they remember from spring. That puts pressure on homes that have been sitting.
43% of Stillwater listings have taken a price cut, and none have raised their price. When nearly half the market is adjusting downward, the first price you choose carries more weight than ever. A reduction after three weeks costs you attention you never get back.
Inventory is up to 77 homes. More choice for buyers, more competition for sellers. Rising inventory by itself isn’t a warning sign, but paired with a falling Market Action Index, it means buyers have room to be selective.
The middle of the market is moving fastest
A single median hides a lot. Altos Research breaks Stillwater into four price quartiles, and they’re behaving very differently:
| Segment | Median price | Sq. ft. | Lot | Beds / baths | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top quartile | $1,875,000 | 5,144 | 2.5 to 5 acres | 5 / 4 | 77 |
| Upper quartile | $859,900 | 4,200 | 1 to 2.5 acres | 5 / 3.5 | 35 |
| Lower quartile | $650,000 | 2,480 | 0.5 to 1 acre | 4 / 3 | 21 |
| Bottom quartile | $379,900 | 1,650 | 0.25 to 0.5 acre | 3 / 2 | 63 |
Homes around $650,000 are selling in a median of 21 days. Upper-bracket homes near $1.9 million are taking 77. That isn’t unusual for luxury property, but it changes the playbook entirely. A seller at the top of the market needs patience, presentation and a buyer pipeline that reaches beyond the Twin Cities. A seller in the middle needs to be ready for a quick decision.
Five forces shaping every decision right now
Buyers and sellers rarely make a move because of one number. They weigh the calendar, the headlines, their payment, their equity and their life. Here’s how each of those is playing out in the St. Croix Valley this fall.
1. The time of year
November in Stillwater is a different market from May. Fewer people are casually browsing, which means the buyers touring homes after the leaves fall are usually the ones who need to move: a job relocation, a growing family, a downsizing timeline. Sellers face less competition as the month goes on and many listings come off the market for the holidays.
For sellers thinking about spring, now is when the groundwork happens. I photograph homes in their fall setting in advance, so a spring listing can launch with the river valley at its best and without waiting on the weather.
2. Tuesday’s midterm election
The 2026 midterm election is Tuesday, November 3. In more than three decades of selling homes here, I’ve watched a familiar pattern around election weeks: some buyers pause for a few days and wait for results, showing activity softens briefly, and then life resumes. People still get married, change jobs, retire and need different homes.
What matters for your decision isn’t who wins. It’s whether any change in policy, rates or the broader economy actually affects your timeline and your payment, and that usually takes months to show up, if it does at all. Making a major housing decision based on a single news cycle is rarely a good idea in either direction.
3. Interest rates
Rates are the factor everyone asks about and no one can time. Rather than trying to guess the next move, I encourage clients to work from the payment. On a $560,000 loan with rates in the 6% range, each quarter-point change moves the monthly principal and interest by roughly $90. That’s real money, but it’s also the kind of difference a well-negotiated price or a seller-paid rate buydown can offset.
For sellers, many Stillwater homeowners are holding mortgages well below today’s rates, which has kept some of them in place. If you’re one of them, the right question isn’t whether to give up a low rate. It’s what the move does for your life and your equity, and whether the numbers work on both sides of the sale.
4. Buyer’s market or seller’s market?
Technically, Stillwater is still a seller’s market. The Market Action Index compares the rate of sales against inventory, and at 39, demand still edges out supply. But the direction matters as much as the level. The index was in the 50s earlier this year and has been easing steadily. Median list price and price per square foot have both been trending lower.
In practical terms: buyers have more negotiating room than they’ve had in several years, particularly on homes that have been on the market for 60 days or more. Sellers can still do very well, but only with accurate pricing and a home that shows at its best from day one.
5. Your own timeline and equity
The market is the backdrop. Your circumstances are the plot. Two neighbors on the same street can face opposite decisions this month depending on their equity, their next home and what’s happening in their families. That’s the part no report can tell you, and it’s the conversation I value most.
The numbers tell me which questions to ask. Four generations in this valley tell me what the answers mean on your street.
