This week's numbers

Source: Altos Research, Inc. New this week: 14 listings. Coming soon: 4.

A steady week, and why steady matters in October

Last week the index had just ticked back up to 44, and the open question was whether it would hold. It held. Inventory barely moved, from 58 homes to 59, and the median home has now been on the market 49 days, the same as last week.

Fall usually brings thinner buyer traffic in the St. Croix Valley, so a flat reading in early October is worth noticing. It means buyers are still writing offers at roughly the same pace relative to the homes available. To be fair to the other side of the ledger, the 90-day trend in median list price still points down, and Altos's own commentary describes the market as cooling. Both things are true: the market is softer than it was in spring, and it has stopped getting softer for now.

The $315,000 signal in this week's new listings

Two weeks ago, the gap between the median list price and the median new listing was $135,000. This week it is $315,000 .The overall median stayed at $800,000, while the typical new listing came in at $485,000.

This week's new supply went where buyers are moving fastest.

That matters because the lower half of the market is where homes are selling quickest. In Altos's quartile snapshot, the top tier added no new listings this week and absorbed two, the upper-middle tier added one and absorbed one, and the two lower tiers each added two and absorbed two.

For upper-bracket sellers, that means no new direct competition at the top this week. Windows like that don't stay open long. For buyers under about $650,000, it means more choice than you have had in weeks, but those homes are going quickly.

42% reduced, 0% raised, 20% relisted

This is the number I would put in front of any seller planning a fall or winter listing. The share of Stillwater listings with a price reduction has climbed three weeks running.

Share of active Stillwater 55082 listings with a price decrease. Source: Altos Research.

Zero listings raised their price, and one in five active listings is a relist, meaning the home was taken off the market and brought back, usually with a new price or new marketing.

This isn't a market falling apart. The index is steady and price per square foot has held at $256. Altos points out that flat price per square foot alongside a softer median usually means part of the market is priced at a premium. In plain terms: homes priced on spring momentum are adjusting to fall buyers, who are pricing against recent sales.

A listing gets its best attention in its first two weeks. A price reduction in week six is chasing buyers who have already formed an opinion. Pricing to the market you are actually in, on day one, is still the best decision a seller makes.

Four markets inside one ZIP code

Each row below is roughly a quarter of active Stillwater listings, sorted by price.

Source: Altos Research, Inc., October 5, 2026.

The lower-middle tier, around $615,000, is the fastest part of the market at 28 days. Both upper tiers sit at 77 days. Higher-priced homes taking longer is normal here, and in the St. Croix Valley the reason is usually the product as much as the price: acreage, river frontage and architecture narrow the buyer pool, and the right buyer takes longer to find. That is exactly where preparation and presentation earn their keep.

Your spring listing photo is outside right now

If you are thinking about selling next spring, one of your most important marketing decisions may happen in the next few weeks. Peak color in the valley lasts only a short stretch of October. Spring listings often go live before the lawns green up and the trees leaf out, and a home photographed against bare branches in April looks very different from the same home framed in red maples and gold oaks.

Through my Luxury Plus Listing Program, I schedule seasonal exterior and aerial photography now, so your home can launch next spring looking the way it does this week. Shoots depend on weather and color, and the calendar fills quickly. Call me at (612) 819-3518to get on the schedule.

This weekend in Lowell Park: Stillwater Harvest Fest

Every October, downtown Stillwater turns its riverfront over to some very large pumpkins. Harvest Fest returns to Lowell Park Saturday, October 10, and Sunday, October 11, with the giant pumpkin weigh-off, the giant pumpkin drop, where a crane hoists one of the heavyweights high over the park, and a Ferris wheel turning above the St. Croix.

Pair it with a walk along Main Street and the fall color on the bluffs, and it is one of those weekends that reminds you why people choose to live in this valley. Check the official event page for the schedule before you go. If you see me there, stop and say hello.

What this means for you

If you are selling

Price to today's buyers, not last spring's. With 42% of listings reduced, buyers are expecting room to negotiate, and a well-priced home stands out. If you are in the top tier, this week's lack of new competition is an opening. If you are listing in spring, book fall photography now.

If you are buying

Under about $650,000, expect competition and be ready to move; homes there are going in about four weeks. Above that, 77-day medians and frequent price reductions give you more time and more room to negotiate. Upper-bracket buyers should also ask about homes that never reach the open market.

If you are staying put

A steady market is a good time to understand your equity without pressure. My Equity & Strategy Review gives you a private, current valuation and a plan, whether you sell in six months or six years.